Update (12:30 a.m.): Prop 8 opponents are running out of time and votes. With 61.8 percent of precincts reporting, the initative is still ahead 52.3 percent to 47.7 percent. More than half of the vote is in now in Los Angeles County, where Prop 8 is leading. Coastal California is mostly voting against the initiative but inland counties like Fresno, Kern and Riverside are supporting it by wide margins.
It's still early. But with 29 percent of precincts reporting, Proposition 8, the initiative that would ban gay marriage in California, is passing with 53 percent of the vote.
Frank Schubert, the director of the Yes on 8 campaign, told reporters a few minutes ago that while he's still cautious, he likes the way the polls are trending. And he credits a high turnout of African American and Asian American voters with his campaign's early success.
"The Obama factor has actually driven pro-marriage voters to the polls," Schubert said.
Schubert also acknowledged that a court battle likely looms if the initiative passes. The Yes on 8 campaign contends that a victory — even if the election is not certified by the Secretary of State's office for weeks — means that the Constitutional ban on same-sex marriage would take effect at midnight tonight.
Not surprisingly, the No on 8 campaign holds a different view. Secretary of State Debra Bowen, a lawyer, says the law in this area is unclear. Schubert said supporters would not try to annul same-sex marriages that have occurred to date. And he took a shot at the Supreme Court for not staying its decision until tonight's election.
"They wouldn't give the people 16 weeks to vote on this," he said. The latest campaign disclosure
reports show that both campaigns have spent approximately $73 million on the measure. And if it passes, much of the credit can go to Schubert, whose decision to focus on schoolkids appears to have resonated with voters.
A quick caveat: Election results have been coming in slowly tonight, in part because the Secretary of State's Web site has been overwhelmed by traffic. At last count, fewer than 10 percent of the precincts in both Los Angeles and Alameda counties, expected sources of opposition to Prop 8, had reported.
— Cheryl Miller
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